This is a good analysis. I am not military or ex-military. I did read a bunch of essays and historical accounts of Chechynea. Russia had major advantages. They did sack the city of Grozny in 2000. Yet, the guerilla war raged on for nine more years. So, he is in tough shape here. I think he is trying to stall. I wrote about Grozny briefly here just based on historical accounts. Russia has far more to conquer here than in Grozny and a far more formidable opposition. https://medium.com/thenext100/putin-is-a-madman-of-war-c709145b8d9e