You read the 13 Keys. Bad economy. Social unrest. Incumbency. No contest to the incumbent's nomination. Significant third party challenge like Ross Perot. Military failure. Policy changes. (See L:ink)

He's picked 10 straight correct. He's a political scientist. He studies this shit. I don't listen to any folks but people who studied this stuff. All of these pundits, none of them put in that work.

https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm